China's export numbers and Arbitrage story

Eversince Chinese Govt pushed RMB for internationalization  in 2010, Chinese punters started betting on various arbitrage within as well as across border. Chinese just like Indian are very JUGADO JUNTA (people who can work around regulations and can develop Good quick fix solutions for big problems) hence practical implications of regulations may differ from intended ones. Chinese Govt realized this when their Exports to HK differed considerably from actual import figures reported by HK. Difference is due to fake trade happening on account of easy arbitrage across:

1. CNH/USD vs CNY/USD swap rates, borrow CNY 600 in mainland which say is equivalent to USD 100.0 in mainland, deposit this with mainland bank and open an LC to HK. In HK, get LC discounted and swap it back to CNH (this will be say 615 CNH) and then remit these funds back to mainland.
2. Interest rate arbitrage , borrowing cost in offshore USD is much lower than CNY borrowing cost in mainland
3. CNY appreciation - Currency has seen northward movement for long time since currency is still artificially controlled by Chinese Govt. 

Double Indexation Benefit (India)

Was rushing through an old magazine and was stuck with an article on double taxation. Out of curiosity searched a bit more and found this interesting enough to share.

What is this about?

It is a way to save tax in two fiscals on same investment. Through Double Taxation, one can save tax on gains that one makes on mutual fund investments as well as on Fixed Maturity Plans (FMP). Benefit is applicable on all DEBT Instruments since Long-term CAPITAL GAINS TAX is applicable on Debt Instruments if sold after a year.

Secret is that in order to account for inflation, Govt allows you to inflate cost price of product once every year if you hold on to investment for more than a year. Be careful with pros and cons 'coz though normally long term capital gain tax is 10.33% but if you adjust for cost inflation you may end up paying 20.6% capital gain tax

Example

Say you invest 1 lakh in a 14 months fixed maturity plan in Feb 2013 with maturity due in April 2014. In this case though tenor is 14 months but investment is across 2 fiscal years hence we can inflate cost price twice.

Let us assume that as per Govt. inflation index inflation for year is 8% then cost of 1 lakh investment considering 8% YOY inflation will be Rs 1.17 lakh this cost inflation of Rs 17000.

Assuming interest rate of 9% pa. on FMP instrument, total interest earned over 14 months on FMP will be Rs 10635. Since interest earned is less than inflation in cost hence tax is not deductible on this instrument.

Ques: Can I selectively inflate cost for instruments or should it be same across the reported investments?

Gold - Sudden Love Lost, Does it Hurts?

Why had Gold risen so far and why such a sudden lost of love with yellow metal?

Since 1999, gold has appreciated 6x. Just before 1999, Asian tiger economies went bust and 1999 onwards we saw infamous Dotcom bust and 2008 financial crisis all of which led to inflation that led to major currencies losing its value as Central banks kept printing Dollars and Euros. Gold has inverse correlation with US$ or direct correlation with supply of money i.e. printing of currency that causes monetary debasement.

Gold pays no interest but bonds do hence rising bond yields will make Gold unattractive. Hence Gold has inverse correlation with bond yields and hence interest rates.

Gold is a bet against inflation since appreciation in Gold beats lowering interest regimen on fixed income instruments such as fixed deposits. Over last 6 months commodity prices including those for metals, energy as well as agricultural commodities have come down by 20%-30% globally due to either better supply, improved supply chains or lowering demand thus reducing inflation (except in India L). Since inflation fears started waning away, investors shifted their portfolio from yellow metal. [It’s a pity that during same time India is still facing strong headwinds due to high inflation. WPI has never come below 6 over last couple of years and CPI led by food inflation has broken the backbone of middle class.]

Usually, Gold should have moved up considerably on news such as Japanese Government huge financial stimulus and instability in Europe induced by Cyprus but Gold prices hardly moved. I believe that’s because above mentioned indicators were playing contrary. Hence final blows came when Cyprus said that it will sell Gold reserves to meet shortfall. 

India with 190 billion of CAD (current account deficit) should be happy with lowering gold prices as it will reduce the import bill which along with stabilization in crude oil will reduce burden on burgeoning CAD which in turn reduces pressure on currency devaluation and recent credit rating concern. However, over last week Indian household’s investments in gold depreciated by more than 20% but since we don’t invest in gold for short term hence this should not be a concern.

Going by majority of economist’s view, Gold prices shall remain subdued for majority of 2013 and shall go back again next year. In my view, we should keep a close watch and should start investing incrementally from June onwards distributing investment over next 12 months. After all we Indians will have to part with Gold during our kid’s marriage which is still few decades away (for me :) ) and currencies will always depreciate with growing demand for food and fuel hence as far as gold can beat inflation we should be good.

Happy investing!

Update
Few weeks have gone by since I originally published above post on 20 April 2013 and today is 17 May 2013.

Markets have aligned with my predictions:

This is longest losing streak for Gold since 2009
Gold investments have almost halved in first quarter
Gold per ounce is trading at 1374.99 (Spot)
Gold ETF investment has shifted to Equities (in US market)
Inspite of Akshaya Trithya and Strike by Jewellers in Mumbai, Gold prices in retail market have gone down
Why? US economic numbers are strong indicating they won't go for another quantitative easing which means lesser dollar will be printed which in turn strengthens the currency and reduces inflation risk. Remember Gold is strongest hedge against inflation if equities are not up, by reverse logic Gold had to come down.

Don't forget to accumulate Gold from here...remember we have to marry of our kids.

Regulatory Climate will remain Dynamic and Adaptation is only option for Banks

 

World is facing dual challenge of depression hit growth and fragile banking environment in developed economies which are slowly but surely engulfing growth engines of BRICS nations. Banks are facing near perfect storm of challenges and conflicts in an uncertain and volatile environment both locally as well as globally. Since 2008, its strongly felt that financial industry is needed to restore investor's , customer's , economy's and nation's confidence. Internal competition within financial industry as well as external competition from outside is adding to pressures in financial sector across nations. Investment banking units of 'too large to fail' banks have fallen from echelons and has added to the gloom so much that banks such as UBS and Credit Swiss have been restructured drastically. Restructure in Swiss banks with pedigree of several centuries is a strong indicator of competition and macro-environment, drastic steps have added emphasis on operating efficiency as well as on derisking of portfolios. Profile of Risk and compliance functions have grown significantly as banks are driven to re-balance systems, processes and business models to meet stringent policies by central banks and Global financial support system.

While some banks have decided to concentrate on core strength by winding off non-traditional units some other banks target to de-risk the portfolio by expanding further across the globe in developing economies. These Global banks will be needed to adapt their Global models according to central bank's policies of nation in which they expand but adaptation will remain challenging since national policies remain fragmented across continents and nations.

Developed vs Developing Economies

 

In near future, World Banking index (if such index exists) shall lag World Stock indices since banks will bear major expense to adapt for new regulatory environment which will put pressure on RoE as well as RoCE. Though numbers might appear skewed since many private (India) as well as state owned banks (China) in developing economies are showing strong growth and healthy bottom line. However if we consider broad based numbers across the banking industry in India and discount for risk due to  shadow banking system in China then two economies don't stand that far away from global economy.

Wondering if this is right time to quit banking industry for good? What do you think?

Tax Planning Section 80C

 

Mandatory EPF, Voluntary PPF and the lesser know VPF

 

Though all salaried class are well aware of PF or EPF which is mandatorily deducted from their salaries but not many are aware of VPF. Here I list down few points to do a quick comparison between PPF and VPF and why one must put some money in VPF instead of PPF.

PPF

Interest - PPF rates are now market linked, ppf rate will be 0.25% above market rate of 10 year Govt securities. Currently its 8.8% though next year its expected to be lower around 8.5% pa. Interest is compounded annually though its calculated on monthly basis. Hold on to PPF till maturity to maximize compounding effect.
Frequency - Can submit 12 times a year

Always submit premium before 5th of a month to earn interest for that month as interest is applicable on minimum balance in account b/w 5^th and 30^th of that month.
Tax benefit - No tax on interest earned, withdrawls or maturiy Best part of PPF is one can also take a loan against it, but loan cannot exceed 25% of the balance in the preceding year. Interest charged on loan is 2% till 3 years and 6% for longer tenures.

From current fiscal onwards i.e. 2012-2013, one can open PPF account even with ICICI as well as IDBI.

VPF

Voluntary Provident Fund (VPF): One can contribute more than PF ceiling of 12% mandated by Govt. VPF enjoys same benefits as PF except that employer is not liable to contribute towards VPF unlike EPF.
Maximum contribution: VPF + EPF must be less than 100% of basic salary
Interest - Interest rate of VPF is same as EPF and withdrawl is tax free. Interest rate for VPF/EPF is higher than PPF (as of Jan 2013)
Investment Period
VPF - Amout paid at time of leaving the job. Can be transferred from one company to another
PPF - Amount can be withdrawn at maturity i.e. after 15 years
Tax implication:
VPF like PPF eligible under 80 C for Tax benefit. No tax on withdrawal

Additionally one can break investment into VPF across months, so one need not invest same amount every month instead one can invest in single shot or once every month or only for a few months.
VPF savings are deposited as part of PF in PF account itself


If you are salaried and have to decide between the two, Voluntary provident fund is better than PPF due to a) Higher Interest rate (compare rates in financial year in which you need to take decision) b) quick process c) Locking period is less

Customer Experience and value of client Retention

Everyone knows  that customer retention is highly cost efficient compared to new client acquisition still companies end up overlooking basic concepts through which they can convert customers to promoters. Promoters through word of mouth marketing can do for companies more than millions spent on marketing budgets.

Customer experiences or interacts with your company through:
1. Product/Offering – product and service characteristics and how your customers use or experience them
2. Brand – Through advertisement, marketing campaigns etc
3. Touch points – such as sale store, customer service, social media etc

Based on experience through above interaction points, either customer will convert into a promoter or detractor. Importance of above factors varies from industry to industry, for example offering is more important for Apple however brand is more critical for Marlboro while touch point is most important for service sector such as in banking industry.

Human Factor

Though customer will always weigh best possible options in the market before making any purchase but given few choices customer may decide to go with company with presentable product that offers excellent customer service compared to one that offers excellent products but not so great service. Human beings like to be given importance and value trust and honesty shown by a company that offers better customer service.

How to convert clients into promoter?

• Inbuilt ‘Customer Satisfaction’ in company’s and employee DNA

• Design experience for customer that cannot be imitated quickly by competition. Weave your service around this concept

• “Make them feel valued”, “Make them feel important”, “Share their values” – In brief listen to customers and respond to their feedback

CVA, Perceived Value and Pricing Power

Winning strategies of companies across the sector and geographies often maintain balance b/w following
• Low cost operations &
• Superior customer value

Some companies specifically innovation driven and in technology domain such as Apple are able to consistently report strong margins. To understand what lets these companies rake in higher margins in this competitive industry we need to understand two terms i.e. Actual Value/Unit, Perceived Value/Unit & Customer Value Added.
Actual Value Per Unit (AVPU) = Perceived Value Per Unit (PVPU) + Delta (∆)
Perceived Value Per Unit = Variable Cost Per Unit (VCPU) + Customer Value Added (CVA)
CVA or Customer Value Added is the additional value provided by the organization and as perceived by the society. Higher the perceived value of a company’s products, higher will be premium that can be added to the product price. Hence strong perceived value or higher CVA value can be driver for stronger financial results and vice versa.

Marketing campaigns, Advertising, Branding, Positioning, Innovation, Quality and other tools that can capture customer’s imagination drive up the perceived value. Though marketing campaigns play major role in branding and positioning of product but marketing teams shall be careful about using their tools due to diminishing returns beyond the inflection point. Managing perceived value and CVA are key to manage brand as well as pricing power hence perceived value as well as CVA should be an input into marketing campaigns. This is more true for consumer goods industry which shows oligopolistic behavior.

Ashutosh's Corner

Indian Monetary Policy Updates for Dec 2011

1. RBI kept CRR ratio and repo rate unchanged at 6.0% and 8.5%
2. Inflation (Nov WPI) declined from 9.73% to 9.11% in Oct but is way above RBI's year end target of 7%
3. RBI's credit growth target remain unchanged at 18%

RBI's Outlook
Due to high downside risks to growth and already moderating growth momentum further rate hikes may not be warranted. Hereon, monetary policy actions will respond to risk to growth

Risk to Growth
1. IIP growth turned negative from 2% in Sep to -5.1% in October 2011. Index of IIP was at 158.1 in October.
2. Manufacturing sector constitutes over 75% of IIP Index. Due to high interest rate and moderating demand scenario owing to high inflation, Manufacturing sector registered -6.0% growth in October.
3. Mining sector also registered de-growth by 5% due to current crackdown in mining sector. Lack of policy clarity and environmental clearances has impacted this sector
4. IIP Index was at 175.6 in Dec 2010 and at 193.1 in Mar 2011. Even though growth registered in 8 core sectors in Nov 2011 will show growth in IIP index in Nov 2011 but due to high base effect YoY numbers may look bad in Dec '11 to Jan '12 and we may even see contraction there.

Due to above substantial turnaround can be expected only in first quarter next year

10 Year G-Sec Yields

Before policy 10 yr G-sec yield which was around 8.5% corrected to 8.37%. This is positive for banks as no further provisioning will be required on AFS portfolio in Dec quarter

FOREIGN CURRENCY RISKS FOR CORPORATES

Firms generate capital either by issuing equity or by borrowing debt and then they invest the capital to gain ROI. In current economic environment, even if a company is not exposed to foreign currency directly still it may have risks associated with foreign currency.

Various currency risks to a corporate can be broadly categorized as
1. Transaction Risk - Impacts cash flows

This risk arises whenever payable or receivable is in foreign
currency. So risk will arise if company sells on credit or pays with
delay, normally credit period is upto 90 to 180 days. Movement in
exchange risk may result in exchange risk loss or gain for the
company unless the risk is hedged, which comes at its own cost.

2. Translation - No impact on cash flows

This is less obvious as it has indirect impact on the company's
balance sheet and market rating. If company has exposure in foreign
currency by way of receviables, payables, investments or otherwise
then it has to first translate that exposure in domestic currency
before consolidating it in domestic balance sheet. Same amount of
receivables say USD 1000 in year 1 will be transalated to INR 50,000
(@50) and in year 2 it could be INR 45,000 (@45). In this case Asset
reduced by INR 5000 or by 10% YoY due to translation (assuming other
remain constant). Similarly it can also impact Debt to Equity ratio
(A = D+E), which will increase the borrowing costs for the corporate.

3. Economic Risk - Impacts unkown cash flows

Consider company X in country A and company Y in country B. Now
depending on econominc developments in two countries, their exchange
rate compared to another country say C where Customer is located can
change favorable for company X and other way for company Y which
will make X's products competitive and will negatively impact
company Y's sales forecast from the region. This is what US - China
tiff is all about. China's has artifically pegged its exchage rate
to low levels so that its products remain competitive worldwide.
Though artificially depreciating the currency has its own impact on
an economy but that is a different discussion altogether.

Finally I know my Regions :)

Friday morning 2nd July 2010, Weekend almost started as soon as I reached office as my desktop was just not waking up from the slumber.. Apparently, it was DEAD and I was happy. After a long time I went to library and went through journals and magazines when BOSS called up.

He asked 'kahan hei' (where r u?).I told I would be there in a minute. He insists 'where r u' ..I told Library and am coming :). (day before he was out smoking when I entered office @ 10:30, he arrives @ 7:30).

Big news, Ashutosh you have to handle toughest economies CHINA, TAIWAN and HONG KONG. It seems that they had asked 42 year old Chinese lady to put papers as I would handle this portfolio.

At least, she was Chinese and probably knew Chinese language...so why replace with me? Can't understand the logic but hurray at least I know my regions now :)


Meanwhile 3 IIM guys have just joined below us and then few from Narsee Munjee and other colleges at junior positions.

Good part about this job, Though I shifted from IT to Banking still I got designation matching my experience :) . Bad part...After 1.5 month in job, I have still now got my salary.

ICICI bank is my Borrower :)
So if you have loan from ICICI, you might be using my hard earned money :(

Me @ ICICI! Kissa Kursi ka!

Week 1:

Day1:
Reported at Andheri-E office. HR had earlier informed me to get medical done after arriving in Mumbai (didn’t tell that it has to be before joining). So, they asked me to go for medical and then to join the office next day. No salary for 24th May , the first day in office. Bad Omen!
Caught a cab for lower parell and went through medical tests same day. Thereon proceeded to BKC- ICICI bank’s headquarters and joined the office on same day to ensure 24th is ‘The day’ for salary 
HR still considers 25th as the day.

Day2: Asked for seat allocation. Discussed with Anirudh (boss). He told he will take care of it.

Day3,4,5: Friday and I was still without a seat, workstation and identity card. Got some gyan on international banking, bank products and ICICI from boss. Session were held in conference room, so still w/o seat!!


Week2:
Very optimistic that this week I would be most productive. Boss flew off to China for a week, super boss was out on a whirl wind world tour. No one to fight for me, so took initiative and ran door to door, drilled upto 4 levels to catch hold of person in authority. Blooper, the guy in question was not in India and none could take a call on his behalf..!

Wed, super boss came back to India and I apprehended him of the situation. He came out and surveyed the area to locate an appropriate work station for me. Finally things were working out but this was my perception! Next day, I prodded him further and got reply that my seat allocation is in his agenda. ‘Coz, he knows that I won’t be fully functional until I get my place in this building with ample capacity and empty seats.

Most unproductive week!

Week3

Boss came back from China on Monday but super boss was out on another trip. Frustrated, I went to HR who directed me to an AGM, someone senior than even my super boss.

Nonetheless, Anirudh asked me to analyze China market and asses risk off Chinese real estate meltdown. Hungry/Crazy for work, I stayed late night so that I could access computers of other colleagues after they leave! Did this for 2 days, passed on my suggestion and presented a ppt with typical MBA facts, figures and analysis. Enjoyed the work 

Today is 10th, Friday of 3rd week and I still don’t have a seat! No work station.
I could be found sitting in library, reading journals, articles, books etc. on topics unrelated to my current job but would help me in future job search. !!

Suggestion Galore!
Oldies suggested, I should at least get my i-card, SIM# and other formalities done but in ICICI, until u have a seat you are not an employee! So, can’t apply for GYM, SIM, salary coz I cant access ICICI system from other computers as only 1 profile could be accessed from a terminal. Coming from IT, it sound archaic and stupid!
Librarian refuses to issue books w/o a card.
Security refuses to issue card w/o telephone extn on my name.
Exchange guys cant issue phone until seat has been allocated finally.

Welcome to ICICI bank!!

After 6 years in Infosys, where I didn’t spend a single day on bench; ICICI has shown me what frustration means!

Let me know if you have another job, I would do that for free but you need to commit me a computer and a seat!

Home search in Mumbai!

“2 diwaney sheher mein, raat aur dupahar mein, aabo dana dhoontey hein”
(Two insane searching for a home ) lines from Amol Palekar’s movie still hold true in Mumbai!!

Arvind (ISB batchmate and ICICI colleague) came to mumbai on 7th May, I came on 24th. He had searched most of areas near Dadar for 2BHK and I did same in Andheri E. Too many houses, too much confusion due to uncertainties. Neither of us were sure how long would we stick to this job, I was about to be married but dates were not fixed so couldn’t commit how long I would stay with him. On top of it, he wanted to be close to happening places and I just wanted to save some while staying in bigger houses (even if a bit far from BKC). Again, further the house costlier would be transport, so break even calculation. Of all, biggest issue was our commitment to job, Mumbai and my marriage after which I would anyways move out to individual apartment. And if we have to break the lease then why pay broker such exorbitant charges now?

Choices:
• Furnished/Unfurnished/Semi-furnished – Considering above uncertainties, choice was difficult
• 2BHK/1BHK/Studio – I wanted individual room
• Dadar/Andheri/Third place
• Paying Guest – Never on our list

Exploring Mumbai:
1. Bhakti Park: Wow! Amazing place. High rise building. Rent 20K for 1BHK unfurnished, 26K for 2BHK. Blooper ..no eating joints nearby and we didn’t want liability of a cook.
2. Andheri East – Nice big houses, old buildings, furnished 28K 2BHK. No lift?? Sher-e-punjab is all that I explored in this area
3. Sion: Old apartments, no lift, 4th floor. 20K 1 BHK – furnished (bhakti was better)
4. Kurla: Kohinoor Appartments. Nice construction but apartments empty in phase II. 1 Km walk from main road. Rainy season in Mumbai would kill us . 30K 2BHK unfurnished
Suddenly, we realized that all confusion could go off temporarily by taking a furnished PG option. Costlier option but will give time for us to think and plan. Hence we hit the road again, Arvind had explored PG options long back even before I came to Mumbai but I told him I could find him a house .

PG Hunt:
• Bandra West: Individual semi-furnished room on Turner and Carter junction, 100 m from sea and nice owners. But Bath/Toilet not attached. 12.5K p.m. Another Uncle’s house near Tawa restaurant 13K and furnished room with attached B/T. Liked both the options.
What we didn’t know: Uncle is a drunkard and would tell you stories about his wife who had left him some time back. Arvind was ok with this, I was Scared!!! I instead liked the one next to sea 
• Dadar: Arvind took me to a Gujrati uncle’s tailor shop. He called his guy in Gujrati and confidently told us to follow the guy, who took us to 4th floor by STAIRS. No lift. Déjà-vu

B/w Arvind liked a PG, Uncleji wala. Paid advance, moved in and moved out same night :)!!!

Now he is onto an auntiji wala PG!! She is 75, looks younger and plays cards in club!! Poor guy!

IT to a banker!!

Post convocation (3rd April), I went to Chennai. Back on my way to Delhi (another train journey), I got information regarding my selection as Chief Manager, International banking group in ICICI bank. This was 5th job offer for me and I was again contemplating whether to say yes or no, so I bought some time instead. Interview for ICICI bank happened on 1st April 2010, just 2 days before the convocation and 3 days after our last exam in ISB. Though role sounded good but then JP Morgan had offered VP profile, so it was not about designation but where would I be after 5 years from now. Difficult choice!
Anyways, with no other option left except L&T Finance, I had to choose b/w two. I liked L&T profile but their salary was pathetic not that ICICI’s was presentable. So competition was not for better but worse of two. Nonetheless, I selected ICICI bank and planned to give a badly needed break from neck breaking job search.
I postponed ICICI joining by 3 weeks to recuperate from ISB injury as I was undergoing physiotherapy in Delhi.
Landed in Mumbai on 24th May 00:30 AM.
Checked in Deluxe room of hotel Regency in Chakala-Andheri (E) Mumbai.
Joined office same day in BKC (Bandra Kurla complex).
Impressed with BKC infrastructure, it truly is Finance hub in India with all central, private and public entities surrounding ICICI twin towers. 1st week in job is over, not much of induction but more of on the job training so far. 2 month of honeymoon period and then I would be given targets to get business from international banks in my region. Not sure but I think I might get toughest economies namely China, Singapore and Taiwan.

Finally out of IT and partly into Finance industry. Already talking about letter of credit, macro economics, fundamentals, bank guarantees, treasury. New world for a person with 6 years of pure play IT experience (non BFSI).
Not sure, how long would I cling to the job. When I came out of DCE (engineering), I changed 3 jobs in 3 months starting from Reliance energy to Siemens and finally to Infosys where I was forced to stay put!!

Getting married soon, bank balance is dwindling and responsibilities are increasing! Getting ready for another phase in my life!

3 IDIOTS - 1st day 1st show

Watched 3 idiots, the Amir khan comedy. I mean dude, this is one of the best movie I have ever watched since ‘Dil Chahta Hei’ and 3 Idiots surpasses DCH by miles over.
Some facts that I would like to mention about 3 IDIOTS:

TIMING: It couldn’t have been better as right now is the placement season in depressed market, at least it is still depressed in ISB . So, MANTRA ‘All is Well’ really helps in this new age of communications where even rejection SMS come right on mobile while one is appearing for his exam..Wow. Climax

LEARNING: What is an IDIOT? Well Idiot doesn’t mean insane, Idiot is someone whom world assumes to be insane until the IDIOT come out a winner and people start following him  GANDHI, HITLER, BHAGAT, Ram Prasad (this one was amazing), history is full of example.

“So, be an idiot or follow the herd” … Take is yours!!!

Train Journey to Chennai 31st Dec 2009

Just found a word document in which I had saved some blogs, ones which I forgot to upload. So these ones were long due!!


Today, since 8:00 AM in morning, I had been applying for this Schneider and Directi jobs after successive rejections from all the big consulting firms. Also, I have to submit the IRR report article to IDFC before 31st and then couple of more things to go before I could board 4:00 PM train today, 30th Dec 2010. Papers were getting over on 29th, earlier I had planned to call my family from Delhi and Chennai to my college, ISB at Hyderabad but then Dad rules …he refused ‘coz of other commitments. So, this weekend just before my exams, I had booked train ticket for Hyd to Chennai on 30th.

I think break would help after string of rejections, especially when everyone else is getting calls. May be I got low CGPA or more experience or a combination of both and worst or best part is that I have IT background. So…dude which consulting firm would hire an old game from IT but as it has to be let us just assume I got better place to go than being a rookie in top 5.

Won’t crib nymore and I usually don’t but five shots felt like 41 shots by Bruce Springsteen…pumped up my emotions a tiny bit.

TWIST IN STORY:
I slept late yesterday, working on couple of applications, for which deadline was 31st noon but I would be travelling then. So, I had to finish my applications today on 30th if et all I wanted to go to Chennai. So, I got up at 8:00 (3 hour sleep, usual @ ISB) worked on application after application and by the time it was over it was 2:00 and my train was at 4:00. So, I called security guy to get me a cab or an Auto…but then it is “HYDERABAD IS CLOSED OUT DUE TO TELANGANA ISSUE today”. Wow ..a cropper out of nowhere, I had lost sense of time, didn’t follow news. Anyways, paid autowala 100% top up and within 30 minutes I was hitting the road.
For first time (for me), a train arrived this late (kacheguda express late by an hour). Finally got into it after having 4 samosas and 2 tea cups. Belly is bloating right now.

Train started at 5:00, and I am writing this blog from train itself.
I enjoy the experience of train, I am travelling in sleeper class a different experience in itself. Train just stopped, which station is this? ‘ JADCHERLA’..small town in Andhra Pradesh.

Train is jam packed with Special Forces, wary of Naxalites or Telangana activists who try to sabotage the trains. Thanks to them we feel safer.
Anyways, So I was describing how I enjoy travelling in sleeper class. Here comes my favorite ‘Coffe guy’, he can fix a coffee in less than 1 minute for just 5 bucks. And I have to toil at home, wish I had one at home. And then comes the ‘Samosa’ wala and Magazine and TT and small time hawkers and hunch. Well, travelling in sleeper class always brings me back to my roots and tells me that I am privileged to get elite education and exposure. Many intellectual brains don’t even see the sun for lack of opportunity and other constraints.

And suddenly, again comes back the feeling ‘ALL IS WELL’. Don’t worry, life is beautiful..there is so much to it. So why crib about pity things, placement, promotion, wining, loosing and all. In the end all that matters is ‘how happy you are’? But then this will also depend on how comfortable you are, which needs Benjamin Uncle. So, fight out in this ‘Dog eats Dog’ world but ensure that ‘Happiness’ is a ‘WAY’ of life rather than the ‘AIM’ of life.

Be Happy no matter what! All is Well.

This is why I decided…Ashu beta go…jee ley Zindagi…take a break when other break their brains. And here I am travelling to my Big Bro to celebrate ‘NEW YEAR’ 2010…year when I graduate for one final time. Year that may define my future or India as well as world economy future …Guess Guess!!!
Time to switch gears, am back to IRR report..only 63% battery is left and the whole report to finish. Don’t think I would take chance by recharging laptop from un-calibrated power plug !! Cheers for now!
By the way, we have already hit ‘Mehbubnagar’ station..and its 19:05 PM.
Night is beautiful, winter is just dawning and its cozy even in South India. Cool wind is blowing, just located a white temple with red light shimmering on the top of 5 tomb roof ..wonderful. This is why flights could never replace the train, Joy of travelling in train is immense and given liberty of time, I would always travel by train till the health allows

Blogging tools

I had numerous discussion on this with my fellow ISBians, more or less with the BBG that includes my inner circle in ISB.

Well you must be wondering what BBG stands for..well I bet 1000 bucks u can't guess it.
BBG = Bakar Brahman group 'coz all of us usually roam around the campus and do absolute non-sense gossip on baseless topics...

Let me introduce you to my group:
Jasmeet Singh Marwah (meekest sardarji with Sharp brain, shortest ever temper, he is known as king of all narcissists in this universe)
Shashank Dixit (Frustatma - he is known to show frustration for no reason on anything that one cannot even dare to dream of..u call him and he will say...kyuuun utha diya)
Vishwanath Machiraju (Dance master, amazing skills - lives right next door and cribs at who took his milk, cups, sugar. It is usually me as I just go to good neighbors and let them help me to have tea at 4 AM in morning :))
Mouneesh Sinha (My quadi (same quarter), Bengali. He speaks so loudly that even when he thinks, I can hear in my room :) , his sentence starts with ...WAAAAAT [try to say what at loudest decible level and u may mimic him:)], if he fells sick only chicken can get him well and he thinks that veg food will make him sick )
Sudipta Ray (another bengali, she still owe me money, she is known to have guts to come to all parties without carrying purse...One needs to learn from her..we tried but paid :) )
Shweta Tewari (Suddi's quadi, chicken bhakt, another skillful dancer of our group, Jassi's right hand or may be its other way round)

Suddi and Shweta watched all episodes of Swayamvar (yes both editions)..and all kind of TV melodramatic serials.

Common link among all - Movies

We have watched almost every movie that has been released during our 1 year of stay at ISB. Also, used to watch old movies at mouneesh's quad while partying at our favourite spot - SV3 corner.

Will write a lot more on my stay at ISB...this is just beginning. I intend to provide a descriptive narrative of our life at ISB.

Past 1 year has passed by rather fast but it was fun, together we studied hard and partied nonetheless :)

This is 1 year that will stay with me for many reasons...friends that I made here..and ISB tag that will be with me forever..not to mention the knowledge gained.

But top of all....in all probabilities as my dad told me after my admission to ISB.
"Ashu, work hard but enjoy 'coz this is going to be your last student year". I remembered his words whenever I found it hard at ISB.

So, I will remember ISB for the learnings and fun that I had in last 1 year, after long 6 years of hard corporate life.

PM Manmohan Singh recently mentioned, “Naxalism is single biggest internal threat to country”.
IS IT TRUE?
Not really, if we think in terms of current severity. We had Kashmir and Punjab, both driven by external support to internal discontented nationals.
But, if we evaluate the impact in terms of penetration then NAXALISM has potential to destroy Indian sub-continent. Unlike Kashmir or North-East, where terrorism impacted less than 5Million people, NAXALISM is prevalent in 30% Indian states and 450 Million people. Just imagine the impact on national politics and development if NAXALITES could further develop their support as they have been.
Remember BANGLADESH, how it suddenly appeared on world map after continuous oppression by its superior Punjabi and Sindhi rulers. We could run very well into such situation as Maoists run through single belt running from Andhra Pradesh to Nepal and then west Bengal.
HOW TO TACKLE MAOSIM?
Prime Minister and Home Minister suggested – Direct Action and use of power against Maoists
I agree – YES, I said it. I agree with use of force to CONTAIN the terrorism or Naxalism.
But, if you want to get rid of this issue permanently then INCLUSIVE growth is the only way out.
WHAT is stopping us from taking either kind of actions against them?
Think about it and think hard. Well, it is nothing but local politics as our politicians either get Maoists support in elections or use the issue to come to power. Either ways, local govt officials lack of antipathy and support from politicians provides these Maoists a safe heaven.
We can crack this by building closer coordination b/w central and local govt.
1. Train a new CRPF battalion to fight against guerrilla tactics, develop integrated intelligence unit across states and center.
2. Make poor believe that society is helping them:
Education: Initiate development activities in affected region, start by spreading education. Provide special assistance or scholarships to students from Naxal areas for higher studies.
3. Provide special assistance – subsidized fertilizers to farmers in the region.
4. Ensure PDS scheme is implemented and benefit reaches the affected families.
5. Bring industries, infrastructure development and connectivity in these areas. This will promote jobs and will hit the base of Maoist groups.
Will write more on this…
To write:
• Porter forces analysis of policing in Naxal areas – to identify SWOT
• Structured definition, analysis and conclusion of solution to the problem
• Letter to Prime minister and local parties – Tweet and Facebook Campagins

Oracle vs SAP

Interesting article (click the link above).
Summary of SAP vs Oracle (unbiased :))
Key determinants in ERP purchase decision:
• TCO (total cost of ownership)
• Functionality

Oracle has better support standards with Fusion, SAP is comparatively not that well interfaced with other systems (say via BPEL, not all modules support BPEL in SAP)

SAP implementations are larger (more modules), more complex and hence costlier. Customers with complex businesses usually go for SAP

Oracle with its high adaptability (fusion) is better for evolving and growing\dynamic companies due to better scalability, integration and platform independence.

Oracle: Vertical Specialization Lacked big time until it acquired and integrated some partner products
SAP: Strong industry\business process driven products (18-25 industries)

SAP offers business processes - Oracle offers flexibility, scalability and integration