Saturday, January 07, 2012

CVA, Perceived Value and Pricing Power

Winning strategies of companies across the sector and geographies often maintain balance b/w following
• Low cost operations &
• Superior customer value

Some companies specifically innovation driven and in technology domain such as Apple are able to consistently report strong margins. To understand what lets these companies rake in higher margins in this competitive industry we need to understand two terms i.e. Actual Value/Unit, Perceived Value/Unit & Customer Value Added.
Actual Value Per Unit (AVPU) = Perceived Value Per Unit (PVPU) + Delta (∆)
Perceived Value Per Unit = Variable Cost Per Unit (VCPU) + Customer Value Added (CVA)
CVA or Customer Value Added is the additional value provided by the organization and as perceived by the society. Higher the perceived value of a company’s products, higher will be premium that can be added to the product price. Hence strong perceived value or higher CVA value can be driver for stronger financial results and vice versa.

Marketing campaigns, Advertising, Branding, Positioning, Innovation, Quality and other tools that can capture customer’s imagination drive up the perceived value. Though marketing campaigns play major role in branding and positioning of product but marketing teams shall be careful about using their tools due to diminishing returns beyond the inflection point. Managing perceived value and CVA are key to manage brand as well as pricing power hence perceived value as well as CVA should be an input into marketing campaigns. This is more true for consumer goods industry which shows oligopolistic behavior.

Thursday, December 29, 2011

Indian Monetary Policy Updates for Dec 2011

1. RBI kept CRR ratio and repo rate unchanged at 6.0% and 8.5%
2. Inflation (Nov WPI) declined from 9.73% to 9.11% in Oct but is way above RBI's year end target of 7%
3. RBI's credit growth target remain unchanged at 18%

RBI's Outlook
Due to high downside risks to growth and already moderating growth momentum further rate hikes may not be warranted. Hereon, monetary policy actions will respond to risk to growth

Risk to Growth
1. IIP growth turned negative from 2% in Sep to -5.1% in October 2011. Index of IIP was at 158.1 in October.
2. Manufacturing sector constitutes over 75% of IIP Index. Due to high interest rate and moderating demand scenario owing to high inflation, Manufacturing sector registered -6.0% growth in October.
3. Mining sector also registered de-growth by 5% due to current crackdown in mining sector. Lack of policy clarity and environmental clearances has impacted this sector
4. IIP Index was at 175.6 in Dec 2010 and at 193.1 in Mar 2011. Even though growth registered in 8 core sectors in Nov 2011 will show growth in IIP index in Nov 2011 but due to high base effect YoY numbers may look bad in Dec '11 to Jan '12 and we may even see contraction there.

Due to above substantial turnaround can be expected only in first quarter next year

10 Year G-Sec Yields

Before policy 10 yr G-sec yield which was around 8.5% corrected to 8.37%. This is positive for banks as no further provisioning will be required on AFS portfolio in Dec quarter

Tuesday, December 06, 2011

FOREIGN CURRENCY RISKS FOR CORPORATES

Firms generate capital either by issuing equity or by borrowing debt and then they invest the capital to gain ROI. In current economic environment, even if a company is not exposed to foreign currency directly still it may have risks associated with foreign currency.

Various currency risks to a corporate can be broadly categorized as
1. Transaction Risk - Impacts cash flows

This risk arises whenever payable or receivable is in foreign
currency. So risk will arise if company sells on credit or pays with
delay, normally credit period is upto 90 to 180 days. Movement in
exchange risk may result in exchange risk loss or gain for the
company unless the risk is hedged, which comes at its own cost.

2. Translation - No impact on cash flows

This is less obvious as it has indirect impact on the company's
balance sheet and market rating. If company has exposure in foreign
currency by way of receviables, payables, investments or otherwise
then it has to first translate that exposure in domestic currency
before consolidating it in domestic balance sheet. Same amount of
receivables say USD 1000 in year 1 will be transalated to INR 50,000
(@50) and in year 2 it could be INR 45,000 (@45). In this case Asset
reduced by INR 5000 or by 10% YoY due to translation (assuming other
remain constant). Similarly it can also impact Debt to Equity ratio
(A = D+E), which will increase the borrowing costs for the corporate.

3. Economic Risk - Impacts unkown cash flows

Consider company X in country A and company Y in country B. Now
depending on econominc developments in two countries, their exchange
rate compared to another country say C where Customer is located can
change favorable for company X and other way for company Y which
will make X's products competitive and will negatively impact
company Y's sales forecast from the region. This is what US - China
tiff is all about. China's has artifically pegged its exchage rate
to low levels so that its products remain competitive worldwide.
Though artificially depreciating the currency has its own impact on
an economy but that is a different discussion altogether.

Friday, July 02, 2010

Finally I know my Regions :)

Friday morning 2nd July 2010, Weekend almost started as soon as I reached office as my desktop was just not waking up from the slumber.. Apparently, it was DEAD and I was happy. After a long time I went to library and went through journals and magazines when BOSS called up.

He asked 'kahan hei' (where r u?).I told I would be there in a minute. He insists 'where r u' ..I told Library and am coming :). (day before he was out smoking when I entered office @ 10:30, he arrives @ 7:30).

Big news, Ashutosh you have to handle toughest economies CHINA, TAIWAN and HONG KONG. It seems that they had asked 42 year old Chinese lady to put papers as I would handle this portfolio.

At least, she was Chinese and probably knew Chinese language...so why replace with me? Can't understand the logic but hurray at least I know my regions now :)


Meanwhile 3 IIM guys have just joined below us and then few from Narsee Munjee and other colleges at junior positions.

Good part about this job, Though I shifted from IT to Banking still I got designation matching my experience :) . Bad part...After 1.5 month in job, I have still now got my salary.

ICICI bank is my Borrower :)
So if you have loan from ICICI, you might be using my hard earned money :(

Friday, June 11, 2010

Me @ ICICI! Kissa Kursi ka!

Week 1:

Day1:
Reported at Andheri-E office. HR had earlier informed me to get medical done after arriving in Mumbai (didn’t tell that it has to be before joining). So, they asked me to go for medical and then to join the office next day. No salary for 24th May , the first day in office. Bad Omen!
Caught a cab for lower parell and went through medical tests same day. Thereon proceeded to BKC- ICICI bank’s headquarters and joined the office on same day to ensure 24th is ‘The day’ for salary 
HR still considers 25th as the day.

Day2: Asked for seat allocation. Discussed with Anirudh (boss). He told he will take care of it.

Day3,4,5: Friday and I was still without a seat, workstation and identity card. Got some gyan on international banking, bank products and ICICI from boss. Session were held in conference room, so still w/o seat!!


Week2:
Very optimistic that this week I would be most productive. Boss flew off to China for a week, super boss was out on a whirl wind world tour. No one to fight for me, so took initiative and ran door to door, drilled upto 4 levels to catch hold of person in authority. Blooper, the guy in question was not in India and none could take a call on his behalf..!

Wed, super boss came back to India and I apprehended him of the situation. He came out and surveyed the area to locate an appropriate work station for me. Finally things were working out but this was my perception! Next day, I prodded him further and got reply that my seat allocation is in his agenda. ‘Coz, he knows that I won’t be fully functional until I get my place in this building with ample capacity and empty seats.

Most unproductive week!

Week3

Boss came back from China on Monday but super boss was out on another trip. Frustrated, I went to HR who directed me to an AGM, someone senior than even my super boss.

Nonetheless, Anirudh asked me to analyze China market and asses risk off Chinese real estate meltdown. Hungry/Crazy for work, I stayed late night so that I could access computers of other colleagues after they leave! Did this for 2 days, passed on my suggestion and presented a ppt with typical MBA facts, figures and analysis. Enjoyed the work 

Today is 10th, Friday of 3rd week and I still don’t have a seat! No work station.
I could be found sitting in library, reading journals, articles, books etc. on topics unrelated to my current job but would help me in future job search. !!

Suggestion Galore!
Oldies suggested, I should at least get my i-card, SIM# and other formalities done but in ICICI, until u have a seat you are not an employee! So, can’t apply for GYM, SIM, salary coz I cant access ICICI system from other computers as only 1 profile could be accessed from a terminal. Coming from IT, it sound archaic and stupid!
Librarian refuses to issue books w/o a card.
Security refuses to issue card w/o telephone extn on my name.
Exchange guys cant issue phone until seat has been allocated finally.

Welcome to ICICI bank!!

After 6 years in Infosys, where I didn’t spend a single day on bench; ICICI has shown me what frustration means!

Let me know if you have another job, I would do that for free but you need to commit me a computer and a seat!

Monday, June 07, 2010

Home search in Mumbai!

“2 diwaney sheher mein, raat aur dupahar mein, aabo dana dhoontey hein”
(Two insane searching for a home ) lines from Amol Palekar’s movie still hold true in Mumbai!!

Arvind (ISB batchmate and ICICI colleague) came to mumbai on 7th May, I came on 24th. He had searched most of areas near Dadar for 2BHK and I did same in Andheri E. Too many houses, too much confusion due to uncertainties. Neither of us were sure how long would we stick to this job, I was about to be married but dates were not fixed so couldn’t commit how long I would stay with him. On top of it, he wanted to be close to happening places and I just wanted to save some while staying in bigger houses (even if a bit far from BKC). Again, further the house costlier would be transport, so break even calculation. Of all, biggest issue was our commitment to job, Mumbai and my marriage after which I would anyways move out to individual apartment. And if we have to break the lease then why pay broker such exorbitant charges now?

Choices:
• Furnished/Unfurnished/Semi-furnished – Considering above uncertainties, choice was difficult
• 2BHK/1BHK/Studio – I wanted individual room
• Dadar/Andheri/Third place
• Paying Guest – Never on our list

Exploring Mumbai:
1. Bhakti Park: Wow! Amazing place. High rise building. Rent 20K for 1BHK unfurnished, 26K for 2BHK. Blooper ..no eating joints nearby and we didn’t want liability of a cook.
2. Andheri East – Nice big houses, old buildings, furnished 28K 2BHK. No lift?? Sher-e-punjab is all that I explored in this area
3. Sion: Old apartments, no lift, 4th floor. 20K 1 BHK – furnished (bhakti was better)
4. Kurla: Kohinoor Appartments. Nice construction but apartments empty in phase II. 1 Km walk from main road. Rainy season in Mumbai would kill us . 30K 2BHK unfurnished
Suddenly, we realized that all confusion could go off temporarily by taking a furnished PG option. Costlier option but will give time for us to think and plan. Hence we hit the road again, Arvind had explored PG options long back even before I came to Mumbai but I told him I could find him a house .

PG Hunt:
• Bandra West: Individual semi-furnished room on Turner and Carter junction, 100 m from sea and nice owners. But Bath/Toilet not attached. 12.5K p.m. Another Uncle’s house near Tawa restaurant 13K and furnished room with attached B/T. Liked both the options.
What we didn’t know: Uncle is a drunkard and would tell you stories about his wife who had left him some time back. Arvind was ok with this, I was Scared!!! I instead liked the one next to sea 
• Dadar: Arvind took me to a Gujrati uncle’s tailor shop. He called his guy in Gujrati and confidently told us to follow the guy, who took us to 4th floor by STAIRS. No lift. Déjà-vu

B/w Arvind liked a PG, Uncleji wala. Paid advance, moved in and moved out same night :)!!!

Now he is onto an auntiji wala PG!! She is 75, looks younger and plays cards in club!! Poor guy!
IT to a banker!!

Post convocation (3rd April), I went to Chennai. Back on my way to Delhi (another train journey), I got information regarding my selection as Chief Manager, International banking group in ICICI bank. This was 5th job offer for me and I was again contemplating whether to say yes or no, so I bought some time instead. Interview for ICICI bank happened on 1st April 2010, just 2 days before the convocation and 3 days after our last exam in ISB. Though role sounded good but then JP Morgan had offered VP profile, so it was not about designation but where would I be after 5 years from now. Difficult choice!
Anyways, with no other option left except L&T Finance, I had to choose b/w two. I liked L&T profile but their salary was pathetic not that ICICI’s was presentable. So competition was not for better but worse of two. Nonetheless, I selected ICICI bank and planned to give a badly needed break from neck breaking job search.
I postponed ICICI joining by 3 weeks to recuperate from ISB injury as I was undergoing physiotherapy in Delhi.
Landed in Mumbai on 24th May 00:30 AM.
Checked in Deluxe room of hotel Regency in Chakala-Andheri (E) Mumbai.
Joined office same day in BKC (Bandra Kurla complex).
Impressed with BKC infrastructure, it truly is Finance hub in India with all central, private and public entities surrounding ICICI twin towers. 1st week in job is over, not much of induction but more of on the job training so far. 2 month of honeymoon period and then I would be given targets to get business from international banks in my region. Not sure but I think I might get toughest economies namely China, Singapore and Taiwan.

Finally out of IT and partly into Finance industry. Already talking about letter of credit, macro economics, fundamentals, bank guarantees, treasury. New world for a person with 6 years of pure play IT experience (non BFSI).
Not sure, how long would I cling to the job. When I came out of DCE (engineering), I changed 3 jobs in 3 months starting from Reliance energy to Siemens and finally to Infosys where I was forced to stay put!!

Getting married soon, bank balance is dwindling and responsibilities are increasing! Getting ready for another phase in my life!
3 IDIOTS - 1st day 1st show

Watched 3 idiots, the Amir khan comedy. I mean dude, this is one of the best movie I have ever watched since ‘Dil Chahta Hei’ and 3 Idiots surpasses DCH by miles over.
Some facts that I would like to mention about 3 IDIOTS:

TIMING: It couldn’t have been better as right now is the placement season in depressed market, at least it is still depressed in ISB . So, MANTRA ‘All is Well’ really helps in this new age of communications where even rejection SMS come right on mobile while one is appearing for his exam..Wow. Climax

LEARNING: What is an IDIOT? Well Idiot doesn’t mean insane, Idiot is someone whom world assumes to be insane until the IDIOT come out a winner and people start following him  GANDHI, HITLER, BHAGAT, Ram Prasad (this one was amazing), history is full of example.

“So, be an idiot or follow the herd” … Take is yours!!!
Train Journey to Chennai 31st Dec 2009

Just found a word document in which I had saved some blogs, ones which I forgot to upload. So these ones were long due!!


Today, since 8:00 AM in morning, I had been applying for this Schneider and Directi jobs after successive rejections from all the big consulting firms. Also, I have to submit the IRR report article to IDFC before 31st and then couple of more things to go before I could board 4:00 PM train today, 30th Dec 2010. Papers were getting over on 29th, earlier I had planned to call my family from Delhi and Chennai to my college, ISB at Hyderabad but then Dad rules …he refused ‘coz of other commitments. So, this weekend just before my exams, I had booked train ticket for Hyd to Chennai on 30th.

I think break would help after string of rejections, especially when everyone else is getting calls. May be I got low CGPA or more experience or a combination of both and worst or best part is that I have IT background. So…dude which consulting firm would hire an old game from IT but as it has to be let us just assume I got better place to go than being a rookie in top 5.

Won’t crib nymore and I usually don’t but five shots felt like 41 shots by Bruce Springsteen…pumped up my emotions a tiny bit.

TWIST IN STORY:
I slept late yesterday, working on couple of applications, for which deadline was 31st noon but I would be travelling then. So, I had to finish my applications today on 30th if et all I wanted to go to Chennai. So, I got up at 8:00 (3 hour sleep, usual @ ISB) worked on application after application and by the time it was over it was 2:00 and my train was at 4:00. So, I called security guy to get me a cab or an Auto…but then it is “HYDERABAD IS CLOSED OUT DUE TO TELANGANA ISSUE today”. Wow ..a cropper out of nowhere, I had lost sense of time, didn’t follow news. Anyways, paid autowala 100% top up and within 30 minutes I was hitting the road.
For first time (for me), a train arrived this late (kacheguda express late by an hour). Finally got into it after having 4 samosas and 2 tea cups. Belly is bloating right now.

Train started at 5:00, and I am writing this blog from train itself.
I enjoy the experience of train, I am travelling in sleeper class a different experience in itself. Train just stopped, which station is this? ‘ JADCHERLA’..small town in Andhra Pradesh.

Train is jam packed with Special Forces, wary of Naxalites or Telangana activists who try to sabotage the trains. Thanks to them we feel safer.
Anyways, So I was describing how I enjoy travelling in sleeper class. Here comes my favorite ‘Coffe guy’, he can fix a coffee in less than 1 minute for just 5 bucks. And I have to toil at home, wish I had one at home. And then comes the ‘Samosa’ wala and Magazine and TT and small time hawkers and hunch. Well, travelling in sleeper class always brings me back to my roots and tells me that I am privileged to get elite education and exposure. Many intellectual brains don’t even see the sun for lack of opportunity and other constraints.

And suddenly, again comes back the feeling ‘ALL IS WELL’. Don’t worry, life is beautiful..there is so much to it. So why crib about pity things, placement, promotion, wining, loosing and all. In the end all that matters is ‘how happy you are’? But then this will also depend on how comfortable you are, which needs Benjamin Uncle. So, fight out in this ‘Dog eats Dog’ world but ensure that ‘Happiness’ is a ‘WAY’ of life rather than the ‘AIM’ of life.

Be Happy no matter what! All is Well.

This is why I decided…Ashu beta go…jee ley Zindagi…take a break when other break their brains. And here I am travelling to my Big Bro to celebrate ‘NEW YEAR’ 2010…year when I graduate for one final time. Year that may define my future or India as well as world economy future …Guess Guess!!!
Time to switch gears, am back to IRR report..only 63% battery is left and the whole report to finish. Don’t think I would take chance by recharging laptop from un-calibrated power plug !! Cheers for now!
By the way, we have already hit ‘Mehbubnagar’ station..and its 19:05 PM.
Night is beautiful, winter is just dawning and its cozy even in South India. Cool wind is blowing, just located a white temple with red light shimmering on the top of 5 tomb roof ..wonderful. This is why flights could never replace the train, Joy of travelling in train is immense and given liberty of time, I would always travel by train till the health allows